Carfilzomib in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma in First Relapse or Refractory to First-Line Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularcarcinomacellheartcycle
  Phrases that lowered it: cellsgrowthtreatingstop thedrugs
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8274 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 33692 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Carfilzomib, Bendamustine Hydrochloride, and Dexamethasone in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02095834 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Filanesib and Carfilzomib in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma or Plasma Cell Leukemia NCT01372540 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Weekly 70 mg/m2 Carfilzomib for Multiple Myeloma Patients Refractory to 27 mg/m2 Carfilzomib NCT02294357 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Weekly Carfilzomib in Combination With Dexamethasone for Progressive Multiple Myeloma NCT01677858 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Study of High Dose Carfilzomib in Multiple Myeloma Patients Who Have Progressed On Standard Dose Carfilzomib NCT01775553 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.