Pet Imaging as a Biomarker in Hormone Refractory postmenopausaL Women
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-08-09, after 2014-01-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticcarcinomalocallyradiotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaseanalgesicanti55 yearshepatitis -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 16 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 11472 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3105 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- everolimus, exemestane
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Exemestane-RAD001-Metformin NCT01627067 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Neoadj ph 2 AI Plus Everolimus in Postmenopausal Women w/ ER Pos/HER2 Neg, Low Risk Score NCT02236572 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- A Randomized Study of AZD2014 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Metastatic or Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02216786 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Study of Fulvestrant +/- Everolimus in Post-Menopausal, Hormone-Receptor + Metastatic Breast Ca Resistant to AI NCT01797120 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- S1222 Trial (Everolimus, Anastrozole and Fulvestrant) in Post-Menopausal Stage IV Breast Cancer NCT02137837 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.