RTA 408 Lotion in Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityfirst dosehourspharmacodynamicsof study
  Phrases that lowered it: volunteershealthyvisitozscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single and Multiple Doses of RTA 901 in Healthy Adults NCT02666963 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety and PK/PD of RTA 1701 in Healthy Adults NCT03579030 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics, of Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of FP-020 in Healthy Adult Volunteers NCT06334211 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study Aiming to Assess Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Preliminary Efficacy of TRX-100 in Healthy Volunteers NCT06757738 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Dose-Escalation Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Single Doses of Q203 in Normal, Healthy, Male and Female Volunteers NCT02530710 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.