Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of BI 655066/ABBV-066 (Risankizumab) in Patients With Active, Moderate-to-severe Crohn's Disease.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningrandomizationendocrine pulmonaryplacebo controlledevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: bipatientsand safetyvaccinationsafety of
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Testing How BI 655130 Works in Patients With Fistulizing Crohn's Disease NCT03752970 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether BI 706321 Combined With Ustekinumab Helps People With Crohn's Disease NCT04978493 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• An Active and Placebo-Controlled Study of Brazikumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT03759288 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• QBECO SSI for Clinical and Endoscopic Remission in Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT03472690 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized, Double-blind, Study to Explore the Effect of GED-0301 in Subjects With Active Crohn's Disease NCT02367183 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.