LDK378 in Adult Chinese Patients With ALK-rearranged (ALK-positive) Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Previously Treated With Crizotinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: canceradvancedpatients mustsmallchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: the pharmacokineticsopen labelsinglepreviouslychinese
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 302 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 623 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• LDK378 in Crizotinib naïve Adult Patients With ALK-activated Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01685138 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• LDK378 in Patients With ALK Positive NSCLC Previously Treated With Alectinib. NCT02450903 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• LDK378 Versus Chemotherapy in ALK Rearranged (ALK Positive) Patients Previously Treated With Chemotherapy (Platinum Doublet) and Crizotinib NCT01828112 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• LDK378 in Adult Patients With ALK-activated NSCLC Previously Treated With Chemotherapy and Crizotinib NCT01685060 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib Study of LDK378 and AUY922 in ALK-rearranged Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01772797 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.