CVA21 and Pembrolizumab in NSCLC & Bladder Cancer (VLA-009 STORM/ KEYNOTE-200)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-01-10, after 2013-12-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerstagemetastaticmelanomalocally advanced
Phrases that lowered it: judgedopenlabelsafety200 -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Varlilumab and Atezolizumab in Patients With Advanced Cancer NCT02543645 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- CAVATAK in Patients With Stage IIIc or IV Malignant Melanoma to Extend Dosing to 48 Weeks (VLA-008 CALM Ext) NCT01636882 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Intratumoral CAVATAK (CVA21) and Pembrolizumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma (VLA-011 CAPRA) NCT02565992 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Intratumoural Administration of CAVATAK to Head and Neck Cancer Patients (VLA-X06) NCT00832559 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
- First In Human Study With ABBV-CLS-579 When Given Alone and In Combination In Participants With Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Tumors NCT04417465 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.