Total Marrow Irradiation With High Dose Melphalan Prior to Autologous Transplant for Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-11-07, after 2014-01-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantcellstagemarrowpatients
Phrases that lowered it: myelomapatients whoprogressioncontainingtrial -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 55 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 55 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 17 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14712 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1983 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- filgrastim, melphalan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- TMI With HD Mel in ASCT for R/R Multiple Myeloma (BMT-03) NCT02043847 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Escalating Doses of Thalidomide in Conjunction With Bortezomib and HIgh Dose Melphalan for BSCT NCT01242267 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Busulfan, Melphalan, and Bortezomib Before First-Line Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01605032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Stem Cell Transplant With Lenalidomide Maintenance in Patients With Multiple Myeloma (BMT CTN 0702) NCT01109004 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Bendamustine and Melphalan in Myeloma NCT03187223 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.