A Study of Tocilizumab (RoActemra/Actemra) in Monotherapy or in Combination With Methotrexate or Other Non-Biologic DMARDs in Participants With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis and an Inadequate Response to Current Non-Biologic DMARD Therapy or the First Anti-TNF Biologic Agent

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapyactivebiologicdefinedagent
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate theand safetyefficacy andopen label
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 719 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 107814 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Subcutaneous (SC) Tocilizumab (RoActemra/Actemra) in Participants With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) and Inadequate Response to Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (DMARDs) NCT02046616 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• TOSCARA Study: A Study of Subcutaneous Tocilizumab (RoActemra/Actemra) in Participants With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Naïve to RoActemra/Actemra Treatment NCT02031471 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tocilizumab (RoActemra) in Tocilizumab-Naive Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inadequate Response to Non-Biologic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (DMARDs) and/or Biologic Therapy NCT02001987 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label Study of RoActemra/Actemra (Tocilizumab) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01951170 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study Of Tocilizumab in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to or Are Unable to Tolerate Biologic and Non-Biologic Disease-modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (DMARDs) NCT00891020 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.