Study of the Steroid Sparing Effect of Xolair (Omalizumab) in Patients With Persistent Eosinophilic Bronchitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: prednisonepatienttreatedmonthsrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaallergytrialdiseasesperiod
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of OC000459 on Eosinophilic Airway Inflammation in Severe Asthma NCT02560610 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Omalizumab in Patients With Moderate to Severe Persistent Allergic Asthma Not Adequately Controlled Despite GINA (2009) Step 4 Therapy NCT01202903 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of QGE031versus Placebo and Omalizumab in Patients Aged 18-75 Years With Asthma NCT01716754 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy of QGE031 Compared to Omalizumab in Patients With Allergic Asthma NCT01703312 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Effects of Mepolizumab Compared to Placebo on Airway Physiology in Patients With Eosinophilic Asthma: MEMORY Study NCT02594332 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.