AIDS 347: IL-6 Blockade in Treated HIV Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellscellpatientfailuretherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: visitplasmamgsubjectsparticipants
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Open-Label Study Comparing Efficacy and Safety of ATV/RTV+3TC With ATV/RTV+TDF/FTC in HIV-Infected, Treatment Naïve Subjects, Followed by Treatment With ATV/RTV+3TC NCT01620944 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Anti-inflammatory Effects of Letermovir (Prevymis) in Adults With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 and Asymptomatic Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Who Are on Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy, Plus Its Effect on Chronic Inflammation, HIV Persistence and Other Clinical Outcomes. NCT04840199 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess Safety and Activity of Combination Therapy of VRC07-523LS and Vorinostat on HIV-infected Persons NCT03803605 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Pausing Antiretroviral Treatment Under Structured Evaluation NCT06031272 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Effects of Vorinostat and HXTC on Persistent HIV-1 Infection in HIV-Infected Subjects Started on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) NCT03212989 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.