A Single and Multiple-Dose Study of MK-8521 in Healthy and Obese Males (MK-8521-002)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-09-17, after 2013-05-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 963 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tolerability pharmacokineticssafety tolerabilityand pharmacodynamicspharmacodynamics ofpharmacokinetics and
Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantssingleclinicalper day -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 19 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 19 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 963 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 153 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Single Dose Study of the Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of MK-1064 (MK-1064-001) NCT02549014 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of MK8245 (8245-004)(COMPLETED) NCT00790556 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- A Three-part Study to Evaluate the Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of MK-2640 in Healthy Participants (Part I) and Participants With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (Parts II and III) (MK-2640-001) NCT02269735 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study to Test the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of MK1006 (MK-1006-002)(COMPLETED) NCT00757601 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- A Study of MK-2060 in Healthy Participants (MK-2060-016) NCT06582602 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.