T Cell Receptor Immunotherapy Targeting NY-ESO-1 for Patients With NY-ESO-1 Expressing Melanoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 54% for any early termination, 48% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-02-29, after 2014-02-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreatermetastaticmelanoma
Phrases that lowered it: clinicalobstructivepulmonary diseasetypegroup -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 169 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 39134 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 806 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 806 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 169 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 39134 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5059 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aldesleukin, cyclophosphamide, fludarabine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Immunotherapy Using 41BB Selected Tumor Infiltrating Lymphocytes for Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT02111863 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Chemotherapy Followed by ESO-1 Lymphocytes and Aldesleukin to Treat Metastatic Cancer NCT00670748 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Immunotherapy Using Tumor Infiltrating Lymphocytes for Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT01993719 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- T Cell Receptor Immunotherapy Targeting NY-ESO-1 for Patients With NY-ESO-1 Expressing Cancer NCT01967823 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Immunotherapy Using Tumor Infiltrating Lymphocytes for Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT01468818 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.