Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant for Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellfailurechronicdonortransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsmalehepaticolddrug
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 40.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 139 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 8926 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Safety and Effectiveness of Bone Marrow Transplants in Children With Sickle Cell Disease (BMT CTN 0601) NCT00745420 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Siplizumab for Sickle Cell Disease Transplant NCT06078696 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Transplantation for Patients With Sickle Cell Disease From Mismatched Family Donors of Bone Marrow NCT02757885 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Bone Marrow Transplantation vs Standard of Care in Patients With Severe Sickle Cell Disease (BMT CTN 1503) NCT02766465 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• TCR Alpha Beta T-cell and CD19 B-cell Depleted Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplantation Using the CliniMACS System for Patients With Non-Malignant Hematologic Disorders From Matched or Mismatched, Related or Unrelated Donors NCT03615144 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.