Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Two Adalimumab Dosing Regimens in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: concurrentin subjectscriteria subjectpriordiagnosis
  Phrases that lowered it: 90evaluatechronicdiseasedosing
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Adalimumab in Japanese Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT00853099 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Two Drug Regimens in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT02065570 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Adalimumab in Pediatric Subjects With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT02065557 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Impact of Adalimumab on Quality of Life, Health Care Utilization and Costs of Ulcerative Colitis Subjects in the Usual Clinical Practice Setting NCT01550965 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics of Adalimumab With Methotrexate for Treatment of Patients With Ulcerative Colitis (UC) NCT01716039 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.