Neoadjuvant TDM1 With Lapatinib and Abraxane Compared With Trastuzumab Plus Pertuzumab With Paclitaxel

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2carcinomapaclitaxelsubject
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelrandomized openand safetyinfectionaminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 57.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 36059 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neo ALTTO (Neoadjuvant Lapatinib and/or Trastuzumab Treatment Optimisation) Study NCT00553358 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Pertuzumab, Trastuzumab, and Paclitaxel Albumin-Stabilized Nanoparticle Formulation in Treating Patients With HER2-Positive Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01730833 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare Neoadjuvant Combination of Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab With Concurrent Taxane Chemotherapy or Endocrine Therapy and Quality of Life Assessment Under Adjuvant Therapy in Operable HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer Patients NCT03272477 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy, and Safety of Subcutaneous Administration of the Fixed-Dose Combination of Pertuzumab and Trastuzumab in Combination With Chemotherapy in Participants With HER2-Positive Early Breast Cancer NCT03493854 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Study of Trastuzumab Emtansine (Kadcyla) Plus Pertuzumab (Perjeta) Following Anthracyclines in Comparison With Trastuzumab (Herceptin) Plus Pertuzumab and a Taxane Following Anthracyclines as Adjuvant Therapy in Participants With Operable HER2-Positive Primary Breast Cancer NCT01966471 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.