A Cross-over Study Examining the Bioequivalence of 3 Test Formulations to a Reference Formulation of Alectinib (RO5424802) in Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorpotential mustendconcurrentnon
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantsbioequivalenceopen labelsingle dose
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 187 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 713 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Investigating the Effect of Food and Esomeprazole on the Single Oral Dose Pharmacokinetics of Alectinib (RO5424802) in Healthy Volunteers. NCT02023125 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study of RO4995819 to Assess Bioavailability and Safety in Healthy Volunteers NCT01901159 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Two-part, Single-dose, Randomized Study to Evaluate the Safety of Supra-therapeutic Doses of RO7033877 and to Investigate the Effect of RO7033877 on the QTc Interval NCT02165332 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Bioavailability and Food Effect of the Original Gelatin Formulation and Two New Formulations of Afuresertib in Normal Healthy Volunteers NCT01827644 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Bioavailability and Food Effect Study of 3 Types of Carisbamate NCT04520360 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.