Condrosulf vs Celebrex vs Placebo in the Treatment of Knee OA
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-06-16, after 2014-06-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pregnancy testtrialintakeinfectionstreatment of
Phrases that lowered it: kneeosteoarthritispainasthmainflammatory -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 14 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 51037 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6648 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- celecoxib, chondroitin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of the Effect of Chondroitin Sulfate on Structural Changes in Knee Osteoarthritis Patients Assessed by MRI NCT01354145 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study of Non-inferiority With Participants Diagnosed With Primary Knee OA (GLACIAL) NCT02830919 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Glucosamine Sulfate and Chondroitin Sulfate Combination in Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02010918 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Glucosamine/Chondroitin Sulfate to Patients Treatment With Osteoarthrosis of the Knee NCT00955552 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Effect of Diacerein vs Celecoxib on Symptoms and Structural Changes in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02688400 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.