Efficacy and Safety of T-817MA in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease (US202)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerdonepezilplacebocaregiverdementia
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyevaluateand safetyefficacy andpatients
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of T-817MA in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00663936 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of T-817MA in Patients With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) or Mild AD NCT04191486 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Preliminary Efficacy Study of TPI-287 in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01966666 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of MT-4666 NCT01764243 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Tideglusib to Treat Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Patients NCT01350362 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.