To Evaluate the Effect of Inhaled Medication Together With Exercise and Activity Training on Exercise Capacity and Daily Activities in Patients With Chronic Lung Disease With Obstruction of Airways

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failurepulmonarychronicheartplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whovisitcriteria patientstiotropiumdose combination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 38.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 235 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Determine the Effect of Tiotropium + Olodaterol Fixed Dose Combination on Exercise Endurance Time During Constant Work Rate Cycle Ergometry Test in COPD NCT01525615 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Effect on Exercise Endurance and Lung Hyperinflation of Tiotropium + Olodaterol in COPD Patients NCT01533922 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Effect on Exercise Endurance and Lung Hyperinflation of Tiotropium + Olodaterol in COPD Patients. NCT01533935 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect on Lung Function and ECG When a Combination of Tiotropium Plus Olodaterol is Administered to Patients With COPD Either From a Single Inhaler or Each Compound is Administered After Each Other From Two Different Inhalers NCT02030535 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Comparison of Tiotropium Daily + Salmeterol Daily or Twice Daily Versus Tiotropium Daily in Patients With COPD NCT00662792 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.