Phase III Study Comparing Two Methods of Cardioplegia in Aortic Valve Surgery Custodiol-N Versus Custodiol

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: coronaryarterymyocardialbypassaortic
  Phrases that lowered it: patientssevere chronicclinical trialrelevantchronic obstructive
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Study Comparing Two Methods of Cardioplegia in Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery NCT01444235 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Custodiol-HTK (Histidine-tryptophan-ketoglutarate) Solution as a Cardioplegic Agent NCT01681095 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Cardiopulmonary Bypass Prime Solution in Patients Undergoing Heart Valve Surgery NCT05223361 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Influence of Anesthetics on Clinical Outcome in Mitral and Aortic Valve Replacement in Adults NCT05696509 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Comparing the Protective Effects of Two Cardioplegic Solutions, on Cardiac Metabolism, as Assessed Using Microdialysis NCT01401140 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.