Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Mepolizumab for Frequently Exacerbating Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsubjects withsubjectplacebodefined as
  Phrases that lowered it: copdsafety ofsmokingthe efficacysmokers
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1941 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 323 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Mepolizumab as an Add-on Treatment in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02105961 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Fluticasone Furoate/Vilanterol Inhalation Powder (FF/VI) Compared With Vilanterol Inhalation Powder (VI) in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02105974 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Mepolizumab as Add-on Treatment IN Participants With COPD Characterized by Frequent Exacerbations and Eosinophil Level NCT04133909 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study To Assess Efficacy And Safety Of Different Doses Of GW642444 In Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT00606684 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A 12-week Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Umeclidinium Compared With Tiotropium in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT02207829 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.