Alisertib in Chemotherapy-pretreated Urothelial Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-10-12, after 2014-08-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-10-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellmetastaticfailurecarcinomacancer
Phrases that lowered it: clinicaltrialefficacy andsinglegroup -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 16 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 15646 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2744 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alisertib, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase II Study of AZD4877 (a Novel Anti-mitotic Agent) in Advanced Bladder Cancer NCT00661609 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Bladder Cancer (Cohort 1) NCT02951767 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Bladder Cancer (Cohort 2) NCT02108652 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- A Study of Enfortumab Vedotin Alone or With Other Therapies for Treatment of Urothelial Cancer NCT03288545 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Phase II Study of TKI258 in Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma NCT00790426 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.