A Dose Ranging Study to Evaluate the Safety and Potential Efficacy of rhNGF in Patients With Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalpatientpatients mustto assessassess the
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhg20pressureoculardays before
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nerve Growth Factor Eye Drops Treatment in Patients With Retinitis Pigmentosa and Cystoid Macular Edema NCT02609165 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• SAD of IVT VP-001 in PRPF31 Mutation-Associated Retinal Dystrophy Subjects NCT05902962 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Retinal Imaging in CNTF -Releasing Encapsulated Cell Implant Treated Patients for Early-stage Retinitis Pigmentosa NCT01530659 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• MAD of IVT VP-001 in PRPF31 Mutation-Associated Retinal Dystrophy Subjects (Wallaby) NCT06455826 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy Safety and Tolerability of QR-421a in Subjects With RP Due to Mutations in Exon 13 of the USH2A Gene With Early to Moderate Vision Loss (Celeste) NCT05176717 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.