Injectable Pharmacotherapy for Opioid Use Disorders (IPOD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-05-31, after 2015-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painopioidchronicuseprogesterone
Phrases that lowered it: releaselegaldrugformulationxr -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 72 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 230 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2090 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 230 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 72 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2090 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1344 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 47.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- naltrexone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment for Opioid Dependent Offenders NCT01082679 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Treatment Study Using Depot Naltrexone (1/6) Philadelphia Coord/Data Mgmt Site NCT00781898 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Long-acting Naltrexone for Pre-release Prisoners NCT02867124 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Opioid Relapse & HIV Risk: 48 Versus 24 Weeks of Injectable Extended Release Naltrexone NCT01882361 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Naltrexone for Opioid Dependent Released Human Immunodeficiency Virus Positive (HIV+) Criminal Justice Populations NCT01246401 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.