Indomethacin Decreases Post-ERCP Pancreatitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (53 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-03-31, after 2014-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breastpatientspatientpancreatictherapy
Phrases that lowered it: or historysubjectsnsaidshistory ofprocedure -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18475 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4146 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 54.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- glycerin, indomethacin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Lactated Ringers With or Without Rectal Indomethacin to Prevent Post-ERCP Pancreatitis NCT02641561 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Rectal Indomethacin in the Prevention of Post-ERCP Pancreatitis NCT01912716 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Trial of Aggressive Hydration Versus Rectal Indomethacin for Prevention of Post-ERCP Pancreatitis NCT03629600 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Diclofenac vs. Placebo in a Randomized Double Blind Controlled Trial in Post ERCP Pancreatitis NCT01946984 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Rectal Indomethacin to Prevent Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) Pancreatitis NCT01774604 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.