Treatment of Advanced Melanoma With MK-3475 and Peginterferon
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-07-17, after 2014-07-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: evidencediseasemelanomabowelserum
Phrases that lowered it: drugtrialpatients whomkparticipate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3352 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 927 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- peginterferon alfa2b, pembrolizumab, spartalizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Overcoming Primary Resistance to Immunotherapy in Metastatic Melanoma NCT05304546 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab (Anti-PD-1) and AMG386 (Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor NCT03239145 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Study of Oral Azacitidine (CC-486) in Combination With Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT02816021 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Skin Cancer NCT02964559 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- APX005M With Nivolumab and Cabiralizumab in Advanced Melanoma, Non-small Cell Lung Cancer or Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT03502330 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.