Study for Participants With Ulcerative Colitis Previously Enrolled in Etrolizumab Phase II/III Studies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboextensionsafetystudyenrolled in
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyparticipantphase iiiefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 763 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety of Etrolizumab in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT01461317 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Extension and Safety Study for Participants With Crohn's Disease Previously Enrolled in the Etrolizumab Phase III Study GA29144 NCT02403323 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Etrolizumab to Infliximab in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis Who Are Naïve to Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) Inhibitors NCT02136069 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Oral Etrasimod Versus Placebo for the Treatment of Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis in Adult Japanese Participants (ELEVATE UC 40 JAPAN) NCT04706793 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Etrolizumab in Participants With Ulcerative Colitis Who Have Been Previously Exposed to Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) Inhibitors NCT02100696 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.