Systemic Pharmacokinetics Following Intravitreal Injections of Anti-VEGF

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: growthbevacizumabvascularfactortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsdiabeticplasmahistorydrug
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Abicipar Pegol Intravitreal Injections in Patients With Neovascular AMD NCT02859766 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Abicipar Pegol Intravitreal Injections in Japanese Patients With Neovascular AMD NCT03335852 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Randomized Study for Efficacy and Safety of Ranibizumab 0.5mg in Treat-extend and Monthly Regimens in Patients With nAMD NCT01948830 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Brolucizumab 6mg Compared to Aflibercept 2 mg in a Treat-to-control Regimen (TALON) NCT04005352 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of RTH258 Versus Aflibercept - Study 1 NCT02307682 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.