Sequencing Abiraterone and Enzalutamide in mCRPC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-02-04, after 2014-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: evidencecancerbonecellsurgical
Phrases that lowered it: patients whoagonistdrugvisitsolid -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4445 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 20 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7659 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4445 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- abiraterone, enzalutamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Cabazitaxel Versus the Switch to Alternative AR Targeted Therapy Enzalutamide or Abiraterone in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) Primary Resistant Patients to Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT02379390 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
- Docetaxel Versus Cabazitaxel Post Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT03764540 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
- A Study of AZD4635 With Durvalumab and With Cabazitaxel and Durvalumab in Patients With mCRPC. NCT04495179 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Dose-Escalation and Efficacy Study of LAE001/Prednisone Plus Afuresertib Patients With m-CRPC NCT04060394 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- A Phase II Study of Increased-Dose Abiraterone Acetate in Patients With Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01637402 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.