A Multiple Dose Safety Study of PEG-IFN in Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsinterferonbaselinemultiplebone
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersvaccineprescriptionday
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 32 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Single-Dose, Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD), & Safety Study of BIIB017 in Participants With Renal Impairment & Healthy Volunteers NCT01119781 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Demonstrate the Bioequivalence of Interferon Beta-1a (INFB) Manufactured by Two Different Processes in Healthy Volunteers NCT01500408 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetic Study of Peginterferon Beta-1a in Japanese and Caucasian Adult Healthy Participants. NCT01978652 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetic Profiles of BIIB017 (Peginterferon Beta-1a) and Rebif® (Interferon Beta-1a) in Healthy Volunteers NCT02269930 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Single Ascending Doses of BIIB063 in Healthy Volunteers NCT02555085 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.