Effects of Folfirinox and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 35% for any early termination, 30% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpancreaticradiationpriorpatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: 14within weekseffectwomenimaging
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 43 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 61072 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 3 Study of FOLFIRINOX (mFFX) +/- SBRT in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01926197 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy and FOLFIRINOX in the Neoadjuvant Therapy of Pancreatic Cancer NCT01446458 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation Trial of SBRT After Induction Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT02873598 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine/Capecitabine Followed by SBRT in Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01360593 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Clinical Phase II Clinical Study Evaluating the Toxicity and Efficacy of mFOLFIRINOX Associated With SBRT (Stereotactic Radiotherapy) in Patients With Unresectable Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT03891472 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.