A Dose-response of the Effects of Exendin-9,39 on GI Symptoms and Food Intake
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (137 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-07-31, after 2014-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 485 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectscellto determinedetermine whetherhours
Phrases that lowered it: foodeffect ofgastricintaketype diabetes -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 485 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 205 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dose-response Study of Exendin-9,39 on Glucose Metabolism NCT01218633 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- To Define the Role of GLP-1 for Improving Glucose Homeostasis in Humans Following Gastric Bypass Surgery NCT02204813 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Intestinal Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) and the Physiological Role in Eating in Humans NCT01900340 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Subcutaneous Exendin (9-39) in Patients With Post Bariatric Hypoglycemia NCT02771574 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Inhibition of Food Intake in Response to Oral GLP-1 and Peptide YY3-36 NCT00822705 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.