Investigation of Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Clinical Efficacy of Oral Danirixin in Symptomatic COPD Subjects With Mild to Moderate Airflow Limitation at Risk for Exacerbations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicdefinedlungdiseaseplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: copdefficacyalcoholvisitml of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1908 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 321 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Danirixin Dose Ranging Study in Participants With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT03034967 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of Danirixin for Disease Progression in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT03170232 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Fixed Dose Combination (FDC) of FF/UMEC/VI With the FDC of FF/VI and UMEC/VI; Administered Once-daily Via a Dry Powder Inhaler (DPI) in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02164513 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Comparative Study of Fluticasone Furoate(FF)/Umeclidinium Bromide (UMEC)/ Vilanterol (VI) Closed Therapy Versus FF/VI Plus UMEC Open Therapy in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02729051 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Dose-Finding Study of Batefenterol (GSK961081) Via Dry Powder Inhaler in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02570165 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.