A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Trastuzumab Emtansine Versus the Combination of Trastuzumab Plus Docetaxel in Patients With HER2-positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercarcinomalocallytreatment ofher2
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopenlabelto investigatelast dose
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Trastuzumab Emtansine in Chinese Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03084939 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study of Trastuzumab Emtansine Versus Capecitabine + Lapatinib in Participants With HER2-positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00829166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Study of Trastuzumab Emtansine, Paclitaxel, and Pertuzumab in Patients With HER2-Positive, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00951665 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study of Trastuzumab Emtansine in Comparison With Treatment of Physician's Choice in Participants With HER2-positive Breast Cancer Who Have Received at Least Two Prior Regimens of HER2-directed Therapy NCT01419197 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of Trastuzumab Emtansine in Combination With Atezolizumab or Placebo as a Treatment for Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Factor 2 (HER2)-Positive and Programmed Death-ligand 1 (PD-L1)-Positive Locally Advanced (LABC) or Metastatic Breast Cancer (MBC) NCT04740918 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.