Mechanistic Approach to Preventing Atrophy and Restoring Function in Older Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-02-29, after 2014-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: determineplacebofunctionsurgerymri
Phrases that lowered it: termhealthyadultslongclinical -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 6 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 11 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 13519 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2170 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 64.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alanine, amino acids, histidine, isoleucine, leucine, lysine, methionine, phenylalanine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nutrition and Exercise for Sarcopenia NCT00872911 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Nutrition and Exercise in Critical Illness NCT03021902 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Muscle Anabolic Interventions to Accelerate Recovery From Hospitalization in Geriatric Patients NCT02990533 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Study of Pre-emptive Etoricoxib for Postoperative Pain and Functional Outcome in Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT01246362 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Exercise and Low-Dose Rapamycin in Older Adults With CAD:Cardiac Rehabilitation And Rapamycin in Elderly (CARE) Trial NCT01649960 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.