First-Line Treatment for HIV-2
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (56 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-05-15, after 2016-01-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientscellslinefailureheart
Phrases that lowered it: hiv infectedand safetyantiretroviralefficacy andadult -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 9 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 36 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 18 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 9 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 84457 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11690 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- emtricitabine, lamivudine, lamivudine raltegravir, lamivudine zidovudine, lopinavir, lopinavir ritonavir, raltegravir, ritonavir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of Three Strategies of Second-line Antiretroviral Treatment in Africa (Dakar - Bobo-Dioulasso - Yaoundé) NCT00928187 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Trial to Confirm a Sustained Virological Suppression Defined as HIV-RNA <50 Copies/ml of 3 Different Doses of Fozivudine in Context to a Standard Zidovudine Based Antiretroviral Therapy Regimen NCT01714414 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Trial Evaluating a First Line Combination Therapy With Raltegravir, Emtricitabine and Tenofovir in HIV-2 Infected Patients NCT01605890 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Darunavir for the Treatment of HIV/AIDS NCT02155101 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Cenicriviroc (CVC) in Combination With Truvada or Sustiva Plus Truvada in HIV 1-infected, Antiretroviral Treatment-naïve, Adult Patients Infected With Only CCR5-tropic Virus NCT01338883 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.