F17464 in Acute Schizophrenia Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ivpatientsyndromeleast weeksvisit
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateexacerbationdrugsconducteddisorders
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 47.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 64 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase IIb-III Study of BL-1020 Small Molecule for Schizophrenia NCT01363349 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• Study With Lu AF11167 for the Treatment of Negative Symptoms in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT03793712 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• 6-week Trial of the Efficacy and Safety of Asenapine Compared to Placebo in Participants With an Acute Exacerbation of Schizophrenia (P06124) NCT01098110 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Monotherapy Brexpiprazole (OPC-34712) Trial in the Treatment of Adults With Early-Episode Schizophrenia NCT02013622 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate 3 Dose Levels of Luvadaxistat of Adults With Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia NCT03382639 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.