Safety and Efficacy of Aflibercept in Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-03-06, after 2015-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: associatedtypeand efficacyischemiagrowth
Phrases that lowered it: eyemmhgmalemacularintravitreal -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- not given (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 14 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 28.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 19
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2515 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1252 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 30.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aflibercept
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Intravitreal Aflibercept for Retinal Non-Perfusion in Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy NCT02863354 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- The Efficacy of Intravitreal Aflibercept Injection in Improvement of Retinal Nonperfusion in Diabetic Retinopathy NCT03006081 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal (IVT) Aflibercept for the Improvement of Moderately Severe to Severe Nonproliferative Diabetic Retinopathy (NPDR) NCT02718326 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Impact of Intravitreal Aflibercept Injections on Capillary Non-Perfusion NCT01724554 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Aflibercept Injection for Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy NCT01805297 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.