A Study of Certolizumab Pegol as Additional Therapy in Chinese Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withsubjectheartbaselinehistory
  Phrases that lowered it: receivedsubjects whomaleinfluenzavaccine
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 124125 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21855 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-label Extension Study of Certolizumab Pegol in Chinese Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Enrolled in RA0044 NCT02319642 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Were Taking an Existing Medication Called a Tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha Inhibitor But Had Active Disease NCT02760433 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Effectiveness and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are Taking Methotrexate But Have Active Disease NCT02760368 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Pharmacokinetics and Safety of GSK3196165 in Combination With Methotrexate in Japanese Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03028467 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo and Adalimumab, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are Taking Methotrexate But Have Active Disease NCT02760407 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.