Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis of Intravenous Esomeprazole in Chinese Seriously Ill Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomized doubledouble blindevidenceventilationmechanical
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsupperadvancedgrouptreatment period
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 151 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1247 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 88471 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multi-center, Double-blinding, Parallel and Positive-controlled Phase III Clinical Trial for Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of Ilaprazole Sodium for Injection on Prevention of Stress Ulcer Bleeding NCT05841394 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Ilaprazole for the Treatment and Prevention of Peptic Ulcer Bleeding in Chinese Patients NCT03362281 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• IIaprazole for the Treatment and Prevention of Peptic Ulcer Bleeding in Chinese Patients NCT03362268 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Effect of IV and Oral Esomeprazole in Prevention of Recurrent Bleeding From Peptic Ulcers After Endoscopic Therapy NCT01142245 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• High Dose Esomeprazole Na for Prevention of Rebleeding After Successful Endoscopic Therapy of a Bleeding Peptic Ulcer NCT01757275 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.