A Dose Ranging Phase IIa Study of 6 Hour Intravenous Dosages of CXL-1427 in Patients Hospitalized With Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: blood pressurestudy drugsystolicinfusionm2
  Phrases that lowered it: arteryaccordingcoronaryhave historyline
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 109 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 440 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose-Defining Study of CXL-1020 in Patients With Systolic Heart Failure NCT01096043 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Safety and Hemodynamic Effects and Pharmacokinetics of CXL-1020 in Patients With Stable Heart Failure NCT01092325 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/IIa Trial With AC01 in Patients With HFrEF NCT05642507 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• QUantum Genomics Incremental Dosing in Heart Failure - QUID-HF NCT02780180 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Pharmacodynamic and Pharmacokinetic Study of BiDil Extended-release Capsules and Commercial BiDil Tablets NCT02522208 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.