Comparing the Efficacy of Symbicort® pMDI and Formoterol Turbuhaler in Reducing Exacerbations in Patients With Cronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcell carcinomamonths priorfailurenew
  Phrases that lowered it: copdsubjects whovisitinvestigatorparticipate in
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1243 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 152 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 95 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Umeclidinium/Vilanterol With Fluticasone Propionate/Salmeterol in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01879410 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Umeclidinium Bromide/Vilanterol Compared With Fluticasone Propionate/Salmeterol Over 12 Weeks in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01822899 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Umeclidinium/Vilanterol and Fluticasone Propionate/Salmeterol in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01817764 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Fluticasone Furoate (FF)/GW642444 Inhalation Powder and the Individual Components in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01054885 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A 6-month Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Fluticasone Furoate (FF)/GW642444 Inhalation Powder in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01053988 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.