A Phase 3 Randomized, Placebo-controlled Trial of Carboplatin and Paclitaxel With or Without Veliparib (ABT-888) in HER2-negative Metastatic or Locally Advanced Unresectable BRCA-associated Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticlocallyplacebodisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsfactorwithin weeksreceivedsuspected
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 34661 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Evaluating Efficacy And Tolerability Of Veliparib in Combination With Temozolomide (TMZ) or In Combination With Carboplatin and Paclitaxel Versus Placebo in Participants With Breast Cancer Gene (BRCA)1 and BRCA2 Mutation and Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01506609 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Veliparib With Carboplatin and Paclitaxel and as Continuation Maintenance Therapy in Adults With Newly Diagnosed Stage III or IV, High-grade Serous, Epithelial Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer NCT02470585 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating Safety and Efficacy of the Addition of ABT-888 Plus Carboplatin Versus the Addition of Carboplatin to Standard Chemotherapy Versus Standard Chemotherapy in Subjects With Early Stage Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT02032277 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study Conducted in Multiple Centers Comparing Veliparib in Combination With Carboplatin and Paclitaxel Versus a Placebo in Combination With Carboplatin and Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01560104 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study of ZEN003694 and Talazoparib in Patients With Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT03901469 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.