Evaluating the Safety and Drug Levels of an Antibody Against HIV in Healthy, HIV-Uninfected Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: controlledequal toor equalcellscell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsasthmadays beforevisit
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 996 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 85 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Safety and Serum Concentrations of a Human Monoclonal Antibody, VRC-HIVMAB075-00-AB (VRC07-523LS), Administered in Multiple Doses and Routes to Healthy, HIV-uninfected Adults NCT03387150 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Antiviral Activity of Combinations of Monoclonal Antibodies PGT121, PGDM1400, 10-1074, and VRC07-523LS Administered Via Intravenous Infusion in Healthy, HIV-uninfected Adult Participants NCT03928821 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Antiviral Activity of the Monoclonal Antibody PGT121.414.LS Administered Alone and in Combination With VRC07-523LS Via Intravenous or Subcutaneous Infusions in Healthy, HIV-uninfected Adult Participants NCT04212091 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety and Immunogenicity of an HIV Vaccine (gp145 C.6980) in Healthy, HIV-Uninfected Adults in the United States NCT03382418 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immune Response to a Clade C DNA HIV Vaccine NCT02997969 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.