Evaluation of Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Roflumilast, 250μg and 500μg, as add-on to Standard COPD Treatment to Treat Severe COPD

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hepatitischronicheartinfectiondisease
  Phrases that lowered it: copdvisitevaluateonce dailymale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1233 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Danirixin Dose Ranging Study in Participants With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT03034967 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Roflumilast Plus Montelukast in Adults With Severe Asthma NCT01765192 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Fluticasone Furoate/Vilanterol Inhalation Powder (FF/VI) Compared With Vilanterol Inhalation Powder (VI) in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02105974 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Arformoterol Tartrate Inhalation Solution in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Subjects NCT00909779 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic (PK), and Pharmacodynamic (PD) Profiles of 3 Doses of Fluticasone Furoate (FF)/GW642444 Inhalation Powder at the End of a 28-day Treatment Period in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Compared to Placebo NCT01072149 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.