Clinical Efficacy of Autologous Mesenchymal Bone Marrow Stem Cells in Active & Progressive Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-12-24, after 2015-01-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsstemmarrowbonefailure
Phrases that lowered it: multipleefficacyclinicalto investigateinvestigate the -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Autologous Mesenchymal Stromal Cells for Multiple Sclerosis NCT02495766 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Phase I-II Clinical Trial With Autologous Bone Marrow Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells for the Therapy of Multiple Sclerosis NCT02035514 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Progressive Multiple Sclerosis_Sweden NCT03778333 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Autologus Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01895439 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Mesenchymal Stem Cell Transplantation in MS NCT01228266 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.