Determining the Feasibility of MLN9708 as Maintenance After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant for Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: determinecancermyelomaheartdays
  Phrases that lowered it: painstempatientssafety ofthe study
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 104 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of a Triplet Combination of MLN9708, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in the Initial Management of Multiple Myeloma (IFM2013-06) NCT01936532 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• MLN9708 for the Prophylaxis of Chronic Graft-versus-host Disease in Patient Undergoing Allogeneic Transplantation NCT02250300 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Trial Studying Maintenance Treatment With Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone Versus Lenalidomide, Dexamethasone and MLN9708 After Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Patients With Newly-diagnosed Symptomatic Multiple Myeloma NCT02406144 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Study of MLN4924, a Novel Inhibitor of Nedd8 Activating Enzyme, in Adult Patients With Lymphoma or Multiple Myeloma NCT00722488 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• STUDY THAT COMPARE 3 ARM: MLN9708 DEXAMETHASONE, MLN9708 CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE AND DEXAMETHASONE, MLN9708 THALIDOMIDE AND DEXAMETHASONE FOLLOWED BY MAINTENANCE WITH MLN9708 IN NEWLY DIAGNOSED ELDERLY MULTIPLE MYELOMA PATIENTS NCT02586038 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.