A Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Erenumab (AMG 334) in Chronic Migraine Prevention.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: term safetylong termthe longsubjectextension
  Phrases that lowered it: dayefficacyperiodsubject whoopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 66 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 84 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 330 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Long-Term Extension Study With Eptinezumab as Preventive Treatment in Participants With Migraine in Japan NCT05064371 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Extension Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety and Tolerability of Oral Atogepant for the Prevention of Migraine in Participants With Episodic Migraine NCT03939312 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Open Label Study of Long Term Evaluation Against LDL-C Trial NCT01439880 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Long-Term Safety and Tolerability Extension Study Evaluating Atogepant for the Prevention of Chronic or Episodic Migraine NCT04686136 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of a Subcutaneous Formulation of Efgartigimod PH20 SC in Adults With Pemphigus (Vulgaris or Foliaceus) NCT04598477 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.