Immune-Modulated Study of Selected Small Molecules (Gefitinib, AZD9291, or Selumetinib + Docetaxel) or a 1st Immune-Mediated Therapy (IMT; Tremelimumab) With a Sequential Switch to a 2nd IMT (MEDI4736) in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticpatients mustadvancedlocallyprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelimmunemultithe efficacystage
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 150 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of IMU-201 (PD1-Vaxx), a B-Cell Immunotherapy, in Adults With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04432207 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• A Study Of Multiple Immunotherapy-Based Treatment Combinations In Participants With Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (Morpheus- Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer) NCT03337698 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• A Global Study to Assess the Effects of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab), Given as Monotherapy or in Combination With Tremelimumab Determined by PD-L1 Expression Versus Standard of Care in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02352948 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study of Surzebiclimab (BGB-A425) and Alcestobart (LBL-007) in Combination With Tislelizumab in Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03744468 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab as Neoadjuvant Therapy for Resectable Stage IA3 to IIA Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT04638582 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.