Single Rising Oral Doses of BI 10773 in Healthy Male Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pharmacodynamicstolerability pharmacokineticspharmacokinetics andsafety tolerabilityof bi
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersbodyproductevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 167 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 73 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• This Study is Done in Healthy Japanese Volunteers. It Looks at How Different Doses of BI 730357 Are Taken up in the Body and How Well They Are Tolerated NCT03793621 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• This Study is Done in Healthy Japanese Volunteers. It Looks at How Different Doses of BI 1015550 Are Taken up in the Body and How Well They Are Tolerated. NCT03542344 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests BI 1467335 in Healthy Japanese and Caucasian Men. The Study Tests How Different Doses of BI 1467335 Are Taken up in the Body and How Well They Are Tolerated NCT03159455 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test How Well Healthy Men Tolerate Different Doses of BI 706321 NCT03971695 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Single Rising Oral Doses of BI 113823 Powder in Bottle (PiB) and Tablet in Healthy Male Volunteers NCT02259972 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.